Let's do the time warp: Look back at wireless predictions

Prediction #1: Smart everything

链接预测，商人将有四个小工具可以在他们的日子里帮助他们：带有Wi-Fi和蓝牙的计算机笔记本，棕榈台使用蓝牙，带有GPRS和蓝牙的手机以及带有蓝牙的无线耳机。

结果：非常关闭。链接说：“如果您用平板电脑更换棕榈台，我就非常接近。现在，您有一台笔记本电脑可以做真实的工作，一台可以方便地阅读和检查互联网的平板电脑，而在真正非机构的情况下进行了智能手机。”最让人惊讶的是电话通信的消亡 - 更具体地说，在很大程度上被短信，诸如whatsapp和群组聊天之类的后继应用程序所取代了多少电话通信。

Links说：“另一个了不起的事情是，在那几年中，我们谈论了很多关于视频的对话变得司空见惯的，以及我们对它们所需的带宽数量的关注。”如今，Videophone（几乎）可以通过聊天通信免费，但是自拍照和Instagram帖子更加受欢迎。看来，一些双向对话已被一系列的单向状态通信片所取代。

预测2：手机和手掌将合并

链接预测，通过合并手机和手掌的功能来减少设备的数量。

结果：是的，但是…The palmtop and the phone did indeed integrate, and the tablet emerged. Though, as Links points out, many people may not know that the tablet, anApple Newton, originally launched in the mid-1990s. But it never really caught on. “It was too early,” Links said, “and the proper data-communication standards and infrastructure didn’t exist yet. Also, the MCUs — the brains of the computer — weren’t powerful enough.” This required essentially another decade of development.

But Links said what he really missed was the need for a tablet: “Frankly, I was initially skeptical when tablets came out. Now I see the tablet slowly starting to take over from the laptop, in the same way that chatting is taking over from emailing. So, who knows? The days of the laptop may be numbered.”

预测＃3：智能手表

结果：宾果游戏。Links在2002年说：“不要忘记手表，”林克斯质疑它在仅仅是配件或珠宝之外的技术设备世界中是否可以发挥更大的作用。显然，智能手表，例如Apple Watch，Samsung手表和Fitbit设备，使这种现实栩栩如生。

“Honestly, I’m surprised I mentioned that a watch could be more than jewelry,” Links said today. “But indeed, the thought of making the watch more useful than for merely tracking date and time has always lingered, and it still does. I think the watch industry so far has successfully kept the electronic watch at bay for two reasons: First, a watch is still a piece of jewelry, and second, the battery life is still short.”

健身追踪器处于相似的市场位置。他们侵占了手表行业，但Links的期望是，他们不会像智能手表一样成功地破坏它。Links说：“我穿了一个Fitbit，但纯粹是一种简单的手镯。我喜欢我的珠宝手表，但是戴两张手表有点可悲。另外，如果他们不完全同时表明它们，我会感到非常烦恼！”

新预测：Wi-Fi的未来

现在是时候向前看并听到链接认为未来的储备。毕竟，Wi-Fi写书时处于收养的早期阶段。当时，链接将其描述为“在未来几十年内将与我们同在的丰富标准，并为新功能提供了可靠的基础。”

鉴于今年预计Wi Fi 6（802.11ax），您认为接下来会发生什么，将来必须解决什么挑战？

Links: Wi-Fi (IEEE 802.11) is indeed still with us and going strong — no end of life in sight! From 802.11b to a, g, n, ac, ad and nowWi-Fi 6（802.11ax）, high-performance wireless technologies have been evolving from the beginning of this century. Essentially, there have always been two major drivers: good coverage in your whole house or office, and faster speed. There have been other underlying drivers, like reducing heat consumption — to avoid your smartphone from melting — and integrating functions while reducing size and price. At this moment, the need for higher data rates, bandwidth and capacity will continue, without compromising the coverage. This is in line with the fact that video continues to be more and more important. Why should it take hours to download the latest series before going on a trip?

我最近写了一张白皮书，“Wi-Fi 6（802.11ax）：这一切是什么？”，讨论为什么更高的速度，容量和带宽是当今成功的关键要素。每个人都同时在同一频道上连接，我们总是想要更高的速度。服务提供商将没有休息！

让我们来谈谈聪明的家。可以创建多种用例以使家庭更聪明，例如智能照明，家庭安全或生活方式监控。您在书中提到，一旦基础架构到位，家庭申请将迅速增长。今天是这样吗？

链接：有趣的是，低功率Wi-Fi的想法在围绕着很多，我们今天看到的是Zigbee— which is essentially low-power Wi Fi — and蓝牙低能已经建立了自己；坦率地说，它花费的时间比我预期的要长。我认为这花费了更长的时间，因为Zigbee和Ble的价值主张更难掌握，因为其价值是它与数据管理和处理的密切联系，这需要完全不同的思维方式。

通常，公司始于产品的业务案例，该产品驱动了应用程序空间。但是有了聪明的家，这是相反的方式 - 应用程序正在推动业务案例。这意味着建立value of the smart home, but it’s getting there, slowly but surely.

The challenge is still the infrastructure. Each application almost needs its own gateway connected to the router to have lights, sensors or smart meters connected to the internet, making implementation unnecessarily expensive. One of the larger steps forward are routers and set-top boxes with Zigbee and Bluetooth Low Energy integrated, and that’s what the industry is working on now.

我认为智能家园的未来是分布式Wi-Fi，每个房间都有一个吊舱作为接入点。有了Wi-Fi 6和分布式Wi-Fi，消费者将在其家庭或办公室到处都有Wi-Fi。每个POD还可以携带无线通信技术，例如Zigbee或蓝牙。它还将允许通过语音激活命令，并启用与互联网作为每个房间中的共同功能的交谈。这种新的基础架构将有助于在智能家庭中开发多种用例 - 所有这些都使用相同的基础架构。

最后，关于Wi-Fi的演变的一些新预测如何。您认为我们将在哪里站在哪里？

链接：对更高的数据速率和更长的电池寿命的需求不足，因此该领域的发展将继续。如今，我每天都必须为笔记本电脑和手机充电，这是我勉强接受的滋扰。数据速率仍然是瓶颈，但这可能需要扩展到系统级的性能。我的Wi-Fi比到达我房屋的有线互联网链接要快，有时坐在非常快速的连接后面，想象在鼠标点击时立即反应，而没有等待，这清楚地表明，该行业仍然需要在基本的基本方面得到很多改进需要。

但是，更令人兴奋的是无线连接和人工智能之间的互动。Being able to exchange data all the time — from sensors to work data to exploring thoughts and ideas for leisure or finding opportunities for relaxation and enjoyment — when it’s connected to proper guidance based from someone who “knows you” and can help, wouldn’t that be a dream we wish could come true?

Breakthroughs in human life have always come from technology inventions beyond imagination — cranes to help us lift things, wheels to move us faster than we can walk, writing to help us remember more than we can keep in our head, printing to share ideas wider and faster than we could imagine. And today, connectivity allows us to live in a healthier, more comfortable and more eco-friendly way — and to make better decisions, faster.

互联的世界是一个更好的世界。这是接下来的15年Wi-Fi - 毫无疑问，这是一个很有可能的未来！

所有的物联网议程网络贡献者都负责其帖子的内容和准确性。意见是作家的，不一定会传达物联网议程的思想。